Will there ever be a TG16 price crash?

[Otaking]

The general price of US TG16 games seems to have constantly been going up and up as the years go by.
Do you think the prices will keep going up indefinitely or the prices will stop increasing and plateau or even possibly dip and have a price crash?   
Say for example if the market gets flooded with high quality repros of the more expensive games this I think could cause a price crash.
 

[munchiaz]

I dont think there will be a price crash anytime soon. In fact, I think prices are going to continue to rise. With more and more people interested in classic games, and more people holding onto games, its going to be much harder to find certain titles. People will take advantage of this, and collectards will pay high prices to get these games.

[RoyVegas]

I'm pretty sure the Neo-Geo guys are asking the same thing.  Turbo stuff likes to fluctuate a shitload but I don't see prices crashing any time soon.  I think the influx is from buyers that had it as a kid wanting it back but also retro collectors are on the rise.  Finally when we get a little older we tend to have more disposable income and being willing to pay more for things we want.

IF there ever is a crash, it won't be until all of us that had Turbos as a kid finally die and IF our families dump our collections. Or maybe by that time, they'll be considered antiques to have physical media and keep continuing to rise in price.  Strange but possible.

[jlued686]

I hoped there would be one during the last console generation when TG16/PCE games started appearing on the Virtual Console and PSN. Nope.

I don't think there'll be a crash, but I do hope at some point it'll at least plateau and maybe dip a little bit.

[DildoKKKobold]

I don't think you'll ever see a crash, as values aren't really inflated. Prices spiked in August of 2012 when a few insta-collectors went crazy. However,  if you follow TG16 prices, some of the mid-level rares aren't pulling what they were even a year ago. A crash suggests a total fallout, but I think a softening, i.e. slow decline, is more likely.

I think what is happening with Atari 2600 is what will happen with most every video game collection - the mid-range uncommon to rares will continue to soften in price, while the top tier rares will grow astronomically. This happens as fewer people collect, but the die-hards that stick around get ever increasing wallet sizes, and the ability to spend oodles of money on a "collecting trophy." Magical Chase might seem insane at $5k, but it would take 400 copies of Magical Chase to own a single graded copy of Action Comics #1.

[Otaking]

IF there ever is a crash, it won't be until all of us that had Turbos as a kid finally die and IF our families dump our collections. Or maybe by that time, they'll be considered antiques to have physical media and keep continuing to rise in price.  Strange but possible.

I think if we look that far ahead like 50-60 years by then 3D printers should have become so advanced you will be able to print clones of the games.

[glazball]

I've found old threads on the Neo Geo forums from 10 years ago where ppl were saying the bubble will burst, and of course we've seen that didn't happen.

I've wondered about this myself though.  In the upcoming years, as we die off we'll see rarer titles from collections pop up, but are people 50-70 years from now going to even WANT expensive physical media?  Kids nowadays have everything digital, and I just have a feeling the demand won't last.  If they have no memories or nostalgia for an old system like the TG, would they really seek out Bravoman and Timeball?

DK mentioned Atari 2600 and I think prices will plateau eventually.  Kids these days who think N64 is retro want nothing to do with Atari carts.  I have a feeling it will eventually level out like most 2600 cart prices have (excluding mega-rares).

[Miracle_Warrior]

I have thought about this quite a bit, and good games will always be valuable.  When the younger generation start to develop hobbies, those that get in to collecting video games or video games in general will want to own physical copies of great games, games with historic significance or interesting stories.  It's my belief that the "rare" crappy games will get no love from the next generation.

[xcrement5x]

I think Atari 2600 prices can be kind of a baseline, but the problem is a lot of Atari stuff is SO simple it's hard to enjoy as much nowadays.  The leap from Atari to NES is huge in not only graphics but also in the variety of playstyles and mechanics that evolved. 

What I'm essentially saying is, even some of the best Atari games can be a chore to play at times, but a lot of NES and SMS games (even if they're less than stellar) have concepts and mechanics that are still pretty timeless.  This makes me think 8-bit stuff forward will hold it's own much better that Atari aged stuff based on gameplay value alone.

[technozombie]

I agree that games from the 8bit and especially 16bit era have much more lasting appeal than the Atari 2600.  Disney games, for example, actually look like their characters.

[Mzo]

Right now there's a big spotlight on all things video games.  It'll move on.

Truly rare stuff will increase in value as time goes on; there's no helping that.  The common stuff will fall.

In 10 years the few people who love video games will still want that rare game.  The millions of fly-by-night, me-too insta-collectors will no longer give a shit about SMB3, and its price will plummet.

[Tatsujin]

the titles I still need to complete my PCE collection are expensive since decades..lol. just hope that they don't go significantly up any more.

[schweaty]

Probably not soon, but I can see prices coming down after 5-10 years from now.  The people buying this stuff now mostly had it when they were young.  Eventually those guys are going to get old enough that they will stop.  I am mostly using the atari 2600 as a model for this.  It was pretty hot a little over 10 years ago, but now its the cheapest thing out there.  I realize there were and still are tons more atari stuff out there and supply is half the price equation

however, if retro collecting continous to grow and get really popular, there could be major inflation.  I know it can seem like a saturated hobby to those of us that really follow it, but in reality its still pretty niche. TG stuff is pretty rare compared to nintendo and sega.

[DildoKKKobold]

Right now there's a big spotlight on all things video games.  It'll move on.

Truly rare stuff will increase in value as time goes on; there's no helping that.  The common stuff will fall.

In 10 years the few people who love video games will still want that rare game.  The millions of fly-by-night, me-too insta-collectors will no longer give a shit about SMB3, and its price will plummet.

I agree with pretty much everything you said. However, I think games with mass appeal will maintain some value. SMB 1-3, Punchout, Contra, Super Mario Kart, Super Smash Bros, things of that ilk will not lose value until most of us are dead. Any child of the 80s to 00s will remember these games fondly, and at some point will want a copy to share with family, grandkids, and whoever.

That said, some of the hyped-up rares, like Hagane, Little Samson, or Flinstones: Surprise at Dino Peak have appeal to only hardcore or insta-collectors. These games are far more common than people let on, and once the market goes away, their prices will crash. Collecting-hysteria is the only reason these prices remain high.

TG16 is a harder situation to understand. There are probably a few reasons to start getting into TG16 later in life. My thinking is that it has wider appeal to the elitist collector - which can and sometimes is the same as an insta-collector. Which raises the question, are the prices on midlevel rares just hype? Games such as Soldier Blade, Neutopia II, Jackie Chan, Air Zonk, and etc, seem in line for the current level of demand. My question is, how much of that is just the insta-collectors branching out into TG16 to increase the obscurity of their collection, and how much of it is actual low-supply side economics? Its hard to tell what TG16 demand will be like in the future. I'm just happy my collection is mostly where I want it.

[Psycho Punch]

I think it will eventually die out, except for a few games which are in a point of no return (hi magical chase).
Will our hucards work in 20 years? Natural deterioration might cause a crash in the market since no one will want to spend money on something that has its days counted.

but... In the year 3000, anything without photo real stereoscopic neural interface w/ 5 sense feedback + wireless fleshlight will seem no different than custar's revenge.

Turbofapix-4096?

[Bklyn4ever]

I also agree that prices probably will continue to rise for a few years to even a decade. It will then plateau and probably decline.  I am sure most of us are in their thirties to early forties. When we stop buying these games that remind us of our early childhood and teens. The next generation of gamers probably would not want anything to do with it. I had The Atari 2600 was my 1st system and I don't have any interest in it. I actually found some games at my parents not too long ago.

[Tatsujin]

I had The Atari 2600 was my 1st system and I don't have any interest in it.

that goes for me as well. i have only very few feelings left for thye ol' VCS even it was my first home gaming experience beside the Nintendo G&W's.

Now my next system I had, the c64, was a whole different rabbit hole, when it comes to nostalgia and feelings.

I think if a system has bad musics or not even musics at all, it can't evoke a lot of nostagia feelings inside me.

[esteban]

Q: Will there ever be a TG-16 price crash?
A: No.

[Otaking]

I had The Atari 2600 was my 1st system and I don't have any interest in it.

that goes for me as well. i have only very few feelings left for thye ol' VCS even it was my first home gaming experience beside the Nintendo G&W's.

I too have no nostalgia for my first home gaming platform which was the ZX Spectrum.

[munchiaz]

I think many people ( im to young to know for sure) have no nostalgia for things like the Atari is because the games were way to simple. A car being represented by a yellow block here. Or a Person being represented by a tan block there. Theres really nothing to be nostalgic for.

[Mathius]

Q: Will there ever be a TG-16 price crash?
A: No.

I don't think it's quite that simple. As stated above insta-collectors and trophy hunters will probably move on. I would argue that these types hold little lasting passion for the hobby. Once they get bored they'll move onto the next hot topic.

It may not truly ever crash. But it could shrink down to something more sane.

[Tatsujin]

I think many people ( im to young to know for sure) have no nostalgia for things like the Atari is because the games were way to simple. A car being represented by a yellow block here. Or a Person being represented by a tan block there. Theres really nothing to be nostalgic for.

that's true, but more important is the musics. music is much more of a memory carrier than visuals are. if the VCS had awesome musics like f.e. a c64, I would be very much loving it for that alone, and certainly also would have lots of nostalgic memories.

[Mzo]

I grew up with the Odyssey and the Atari 2600 and I have never thought about buying them back or playing them.  I just don't enjoy them that much =/

[esteban]

Q: Will there ever be a TG-16 price crash?
A: No.

I don't think it's quite that simple. As stated above insta-collectors and trophy hunters will probably move on. I would argue that these types hold little lasting passion for the hobby. Once they get bored they'll move onto the next hot topic.

It may not truly ever crash. But it could shrink down to something more sane.

Q: Do you have a reasonable argument?
A: Yes.
Q: Does it matter?
A: No.

 

ALL YOU BASTARDS HATIN' ON VCS/2600: GRAB A PADDLE AND PLAY KABOOM! and you'll see that how wrong you are. Suck it, haters.

[imparanoic]

I presume that turbo market may not see a reduction in prices, if not a marginal drop due rarity and niche demand for English localized pc engine games

but pc engine prices have significantly dropped since everdrive flash card release and most games are more affordable than lets say 10 years ago or even 5 years, only really rare games keeps there prices ( reflects hardcore collectors market), you will always get extortion prices on ebay, but auctions will reflect the market

emulation on current consoles has also contributed to the drop as well

[BlueBMW]

that's true, but more important is the musics. music is much more of a memory carrier than visuals are. if the VCS had awesome musics like f.e. a c64, I would be very much loving it for that alone, and certainly also would have lots of nostalgic memories.

This....  This is so incredibly true.  I have the most connection with games who's music I love.  I'll bet there are some games where I've listened the the music far more than I ever actually played the game.  Ahh video game music how I love thee...

[Mathius]

that's true, but more important is the musics. music is much more of a memory carrier than visuals are. if the VCS had awesome musics like f.e. a c64, I would be very much loving it for that alone, and certainly also would have lots of nostalgic memories.

This....  This is so incredibly true.  I have the most connection with games who's music I love.  I'll bet there are some games where I've listened the the music far more than I ever actually played the game.  Ahh video game music how I love thee...

I couldn't agree with you two more! There is just something about 8 and 16-Bit chip generated and even some 32-bit synth that fills my belly with warm nostalgia. I was playing Rage Racer today and when you win a cup and progress to the next race there is a CG interlude with the coolest 32-Bit synth! It was the best kind of Japanese synth rock. I wish the whole game had music in that style.

[BigusSchmuck]

I doubt it. If emulation hasn't caused a major price drop in retro games nothing will.

[YANDMAN]

For every game sold is another one less in circulation, Lots more people are awakening to the Turbo every day, They are realising that the console they saw as an also ran is totally awesome and then the buying frenzy begins, The Turbo will eventually i think reach a dizzy height like the Neo Geo obviously games wont reach those crazy prices but the demand will increase and increase, Im in the u.k and if you guys stateside think games are expensive try buying them here........Well you have to find some first.

[imparanoic]

I doubt it. If emulation hasn't caused a major price drop in retro games nothing will.

software emulation is rarely 100% perfect compared to real games on real machines

but flash carts on real hardware is essentially the same except the high prices

[JoshTurboTrollX]

that's true, but more important is the musics. music is much more of a memory carrier than visuals are. if the VCS had awesome musics like f.e. a c64, I would be very much loving it for that alone, and certainly also would have lots of nostalgic memories.

This....  This is so incredibly true.  I have the most connection with games who's music I love.  I'll bet there are some games where I've listened the the music far more than I ever actually played the game.  Ahh video game music how I love thee...

I couldn't agree with you two more! There is just something about 8 and 16-Bit chip generated and even some 32-bit synth that fills my belly with warm nostalgia. I was playing Rage Racer today and when you win a cup and progress to the next race there is a CG interlude with the coolest 32-Bit synth! It was the best kind of Japanese synth rock. I wish the whole game had music in that style.

Pitfall II has the best 2600 soundtrack, that's one I often hum/whistle/think about.  I guess I have some sort of nostalgia connection with that game, but otherwise, not too much else for the old Atari.

I doubt it. If emulation hasn't caused a major price drop in retro games nothing will.

Connection:  Ever since the Magic Engine Forums have declined in activity the prices of Turbo games have increased in price.  O_O!  What we all need to do is migrate over there and be more active. PROMOTE EMULATION!  DEMOTE TURBOGRAFX! Let all the collector/follower/me-to'er sheep think that all we do is download ROMZ and play on our computers!!  Then they'll quickly sell off their actual games because it won't be cool anymore.

We are the trend setters....

[Otaking]

but pc engine prices have significantly dropped since everdrive flash card release and most games are more affordable than lets say 10 years ago or even 5 years, only really rare games keeps there prices ( reflects hardcore collectors market), you will always get extortion prices on ebay, but auctions will reflect the market

emulation on current consoles has also contributed to the drop as well

I too have noticed a price drop in PC Engine prices from 5 years ago not sure I agree though that it's due to the everdrive or emulation.
US TG-16 games on the other hand seem to be constantly going up in price over the years, my guess is the print runs on the US stuff were much lower and the amount of TG-16 collectors have increased so it's a case of supply and demand.

[rtyper]

To the OP:

Anything that goes up in value very rarely comes down.
In the videogame world it would take a discovery of new/old stock, possibly in a warehouse, as was the case with Circus Lido on the PCEngine. Once a much sought after rarety, but now fairly common as new.
Any hobby that involves some kind of collecting such as baseball cards, comic-books, videogames etc attracts
investors. People that have no interest in the subject matter but are willing to speculate large
sums of money accumulating 'stocks and shares' in these hobbies.
Sites like this one (and a few others I could name) provide invaluable information for these people, as can be seen by some of the posts/threads that some people (usually newbies??, such as myself) make.
When valuation sevices such as CGC for comic-books or VGA for videogames appear you can pretty
much guarantee it is too late.
Are you going to pay $5,000 for a VGA sealed copy of Magical Chase and open it to play?
The gulf between the less attractive (one would assume less rare) games and the premium titles will grow much further as time goes by, whether in top grade or not and as we have seen on ebay/yaj there is no shortage of people willing to pay these premiums.
Emulation, piracy or other means of playing these games will not make a dent in the desireability/value of a top title much the same as reprinting old comic-books has zero effect on theirs and people are much more educated about these values now due to press/tv exposure.
Luckily, for me, I have zero interest in TGX version games apart from one or two of the action rpg translations, but if I did and a copy of Magical Chase or any other 'premium' title popped up, on ebay or not, I would be very tempted to 'get in early' because this stuff just isn't going to be available to buy in 10 years or so.
Collectors are not going to re-circulate this stuff back into the community, but I suppose you could wait for them to die. 

Posted by HardcoreOtaku

I too have noticed a price drop in PC Engine prices from 5 years ago not sure I agree though that it's due to the everdrive or emulation.
US TG-16 games on the other hand seem to be constantly going up in price over the years, my guess is the print runs on the US stuff were much lower and the amount of TG-16 collectors have increased so it's a case of supply and demand.

I'm not sure where you are seeing this happen, even some of the cheaper sellers (jump2japan)
have raised their prices substantially over the last couple of years and prices for used games
appear to sell at what was the sealed level.

that's true, but more important is the musics. music is much more of a memory carrier than visuals are. if the VCS had awesome musics like f.e. a c64, I would be very much loving it for that alone, and certainly also would have lots of nostalgic memories.

This....  This is so incredibly true.  I have the most connection with games who's music I love.  I'll bet there are some games where I've listened the the music far more than I ever actually played the game.  Ahh video game music how I love thee...

I couldn't agree with you two more! There is just something about 8 and 16-Bit chip generated and even some 32-bit synth that fills my belly with warm nostalgia. I was playing Rage Racer today and when you win a cup and progress to the next race there is a CG interlude with the coolest 32-Bit synth! It was the best kind of Japanese synth rock. I wish the whole game had music in that style.

Pitfall II has the best 2600 soundtrack, that's one I often hum/whistle/think about.  I guess I have some sort of nostalgia connection with that game, but otherwise, not too much else for the old Atari.

and to end on a positive note:
I could not agree more, picking up a hardsid card for my pc and dloading acidplayer/hvsc
best move ever for those c64 sid tunes.

[NecroPhile]

Collectors are not going to re-circulate this stuff back into the community.....

It happens all the time when collectors need money to pay rent, get a root canal, buy some other shiny bauble they can't afford, etc.

[Otaking]

Posted by HardcoreOtaku

I too have noticed a price drop in PC Engine prices from 5 years ago not sure I agree though that it's due to the everdrive or emulation.
US TG-16 games on the other hand seem to be constantly going up in price over the years, my guess is the print runs on the US stuff were much lower and the amount of TG-16 collectors have increased so it's a case of supply and demand.

I'm not sure where you are seeing this happen, even some of the cheaper sellers (jump2japan)
have raised their prices substantially over the last couple of years and prices for used games
appear to sell at what was the sealed level.

With regards the PC Engine price drop I meant more the price eBay auctions were ending at not the 'buy it now' sales.

[YANDMAN]

Collectors are not going to re-circulate this stuff back into the community.....

It happens all the time when collectors need money to pay rent, get a root canal, buy some other shiny bauble they can't afford, etc.


This January just passed i have snagged me the most bargains i have ever snagged, It was obviously because of the post Christmas cash flow and the continued economic world mess, So i agree with you there does come a point where people will be forced to sell certain things, Sometimes they start them high and don't move some times they start low and you get an incredible deal, I bought Parasol stars tg16 version complete in box for £12 one of my nicest deals to date.

[420GOAT]

if its anything like car parts, the less available, they keep their value.

[esadajr]

I don't see prices going significantly down at least until our generation becomes senile and we can no longer play. But then the younger generations will be telling stories and distort history. Who knows, maybe in a 100 years Imposamole and Darwing Duck will be highly sought after items and expensive just like a Ming Dynasty vase.

[wolfman]

But then the younger generations will be telling stories and distort history. Who knows, maybe in a 100 years Imposamole and Darwing Duck will be highly sought after items and expensive just like a Ming Dynasty vase.

Yep. Take AdventureVision for example. A few years back you could get a CIB for around 500-800 bucks. Now its more like 1500+, and it is far from being mint, if you ever come across one...which is likely only 2x a year on Ebay, both of them around xmas.

So yes, they become more and more like cars. Expensive toys, if you will  O:)

[munchiaz]

Every time i come back to this thread i think of that episode of cowboy bebop where they find a VHS tape, and they take it to some hardcore collector to watch it

[wolfman]

Yeah, still analog 

[kenomac78]

im going to say no. with ebay, the prices will be set like that forever, if a price ever dropped, there would always be 10 people ready to snap it up which would then just raise the price back up. sure there are idiots who list stuff for 99 million $ but if something fell from like 100 to 50, i would be on that, and you knwo you would be too!

also with atari and almost everything else  compared to turbo the number of carts out there are 100 X more! so unless your out for every game, you can surely get something fun for not a lot.

i think if anything virtual console just increased interest in older games instead of lowering value.


over on atari age once, like yeaaaaars ago there was some post about research of how long a game could be playable. i recall seeing that in an air tight space, they could last 300-400 years presumably! its all about if the pins can still make a connection.


the next question is what happens when tvs no longer have AV inputs? meaning all pre hdmi game systems will eventually have no tv to play them on, uh oh!

[HailingTheThings]

Every time i come back to this thread i think of that episode of cowboy bebop where they find a VHS tape, and they take it to some hardcore collector to watch it

Good episode. Good series.

[BigusSchmuck]

i think if anything virtual console just increased interest in older games instead of lowering value.[/quote]
It also doesn't help that Nintendo is killing the win virtual console in favor of the wiiu in May...

[esadajr]

the next question is what happens when tvs no longer have AV inputs? meaning all pre hdmi game systems will eventually have no tv to play them on, uh oh!

There will be converters, even if we make the switch to the neural system

[jeffhlewis]

I had a theory that there would be a sliding scale of what's valuable at any given time - whatever people between the ages of 20 and 40 (or so) were nostalgic for. Started with Atari, shifted to the 8 and 16 bit generations, will shift to Xbox/PS2/GC era, etc.

But now everyone collects everything all the time so that theory is out the window.

I really don't see a "bubble" with this hobby because reprints and re-releases don't appear to have much effect on the value of the original items. People value the original copies and it's not like they're going to start printing more any time soon.

But this really only applies if you give a shit about "grail" games that cost an arm and a leg. I just got Vagrant Story for $10 on eBay complete, and I'll take that over Flintstones for the NES all day.

[Miracle_Warrior]

the next question is what happens when tvs no longer have AV inputs? meaning all pre hdmi game systems will eventually have no tv to play them on, uh oh!

Whenever I have a similar thought, I am reminded that the majority of collectors out there don't actually play their games anyway.  Sealed game collectors for example have no intention of ever playing those games, so whether they can hook their consoles up or not is irrelevant to them.  They sure look great on display though in their shiney shrinkwrap and VGA cases. 

Just imagine all of the consoles sitting around in boxes on collectors shelves right now with their caps leaking all over the place, lol.  The consoles won't work as they are intended to anyway without some proper maintenance.

So, if you're worried about the value of your games, don't be.  There will always be a collector who will buy your old games from you for good money so they can display them.

[InfraMan]

I just got Vagrant Story for $10 on eBay complete, and I'll take that over Flintstones for the NES all day.

Amen to that, I love Vagrant Story! Man, Square were really on top of their game back then.

[Mathius]

But this really only applies if you give a shit about "grail" games that cost an arm and a leg. I just got Vagrant Story for $10 on eBay complete, and I'll take that over Flintstones for the NES all day.

^^This. It's exactly what separates us from collectards.

[esteban]

Answer: No.