Will we see prices level out?

[Azzurri]

Prices right now seem to be crazy high, and this is not just Turbografx stuff, but SNES, Sega Saturn, and other retro consoles.  Even the stuff that isn't 'rare' is double or even more than it was a couple years back.

Do you guys think the prices will eventually level out, once resellers move out and the gouging stops?  Or are we in for these prices for the foreseeable future?

Part of me thinks it's here to stay since these games are not getting any newer, and over the years people lose stuff or it breaks.

Anyways, what say you?

[tbone3969]

I think that these prices are here to stay.  There will always be the slight variations throughout the year (lower prices in the summer and higher prices just before Xmas) but the overall slow creep up will continue for 10 - 20 years.  After that I am not sure.  There are a number of factors that worry me with Bit Rot being the number one.  After 20 yrs. most CDs and a high percentage of carts will start to become unplayable.  Many of my collecting friends have varying thoughts on how this will effect value.  I personally think that original discs, carts, and manuals will hold their value even if the game itself is unplayable.  Other factors to consider is the demographic age of the collectors.  Once the 80s and 90s children start retiring and dying will the prices drop?  An example if this would be the first car, the Ford Model T.  This was highly collectible and reached soaring prices but when all the collectors that grew up with it died off the price and desire for these cars dropped significantly.  With kids today being obsessed with video games just like in the 80s and 90s I think there will be a second, third, and fourth generation of collectors to come but I could be wrong.  Again many of my friends have different opinions on this.

[CrackTiger]

When I clicked on this I honestly thought that this was the last thread like this with the identical title. I was curious to see what it would have been bumped with.

[Otaking]

I started a thread asking a similar question 
https://www.pcengine-fx.com/forums/index.php?topic=16341.0

[Azzurri]

I started a thread asking a similar question 
https://www.pcengine-fx.com/forums/index.php?topic=16341.0

Didn't want to bump a old topic, and didn't see it, lol.

[NecroPhile]

After 20 yrs. most CDs and a high percentage of carts will start to become unplayable.

Upon what empirical evidence do you base this belief?  There are game cartridges that are already 20 years older than 16-bit game carts and music CDs at least 10 years older than 16-bit game CDs, yet very few of 'em have failed.

When I clicked on this I honestly thought that this was the last thread like this with the identical title. I was curious to see what it would have been bumped with.

Heh, me too.  Looking at old threads is for suckers! 

[Azzurri]

After 20 yrs. most CDs and a high percentage of carts will start to become unplayable.

Upon what empirical evidence do you base this belief?  There are game cartridges that are already 20 years older than 16-bit game carts and music CDs at least 10 years older than 16-bit game CDs, yet very few of 'em have failed.

When I clicked on this I honestly thought that this was the last thread like this with the identical title. I was curious to see what it would have been bumped with.

Heh, me too.  Looking at old threads is for suckers! 

I have never had an old CD or cart base game fail on me after years of use.

[ToyMachine78]

I'm not sure how susceptible carts are to "bit rot". Last winter I sold off my 7800 and all the games I had for it. Many which were 2600 games that were bought with the release of the 2600. So these were pretty damn old games, ~34yo. On top of that, they were stored in my parents attic for 20 years, where summer temps reach 100+ on a daily basis with high humidity, and 30-40 in the winter. I pulled everything out and hooked it up, and all of it played just fine.

Disks are another issue. But I think that laser rot is greatly exaggerated too. My original CDs from late 80's still play great, and those things have been through a lot!

[tbone3969]

I am no Bit Rot expert but I do know nothing last forever and Bit Rot is real.  I have come across about a dozen bit rotted discs in my lifetime.  I have only found 1 cart however.  All I am saying is that 20, 30, 40 years from now I believe a high percentage of CDs will have bit rot.  The early released CDs of the late 80s/early 90s are the most susceptible. 

Again I am no expert but I have done some research online and have talked to many of my collecting friends about this.  Google it for yourself. 

Bit Rot is inevitable and will happen to all media at some point.  It's just a matter of when it will happen.

[EvilEvoIX]

I think once our generation gets older their will be a crash.  Technology is getting better and better and pretty soon people will just want to play the games via Emulation completely, I can't see people paying big bucks for ever on this stuff there has to be a crash except for the super rare stuff like the Gold NES Wold Champions Cart and so on.

The problem is once the crash does happen it'll take down all resellers and the sellers market almost entirely so finding games will be much harder.

[tbone3969]

Here is just one of many bit rot discussions on the web

http://forum.digitpress.com/forum/showthread.php?149968-Bit-Rot-Disc-Rot-amp-Data-Loss-An-insightful-look-into-Video-Game-Collecting

[johnnymad]

The problem is once the crash does happen it'll take down all resellers and the sellers market almost entirely so finding games will be much harder.

Think it might be easier for the ones of us that are out there hunting for the games in the wild. Resellers will be less likely to pick things up if they don't think they can make a profit. Bring on the crash!

[NecroPhile]

I am no Bit Rot expert but I do know nothing last forever and Bit Rot is real.

I didn't say disc rot isn't real, as it's a given that nothing will last indefinitely.  I was questioning how you came up with a magic number of 20 years, especially when applied to carts.

[xcrement5x]

Bit rot (and bronzing) as a process is extremely rare in most commercially produced stuff.  Most things that have it are laserdiscs and some very select CDs pressed by a few manufacturers early in the life of the CD. 

What many people see and attribute to bit rot nowadays are just poorly handled discs that have damage to the top surface.  In my experience, there are lots of Sega CD and Saturn games have a very thin screenprint on the top so they damage quite easily over time if they aren't handled properly.  Properly taken care of I see no problem with most discs lasting at least 80 years if not more. 

I think the bigger problem in the future will be getting the appropriate lasers/lens for original consoles.  Already sourcing them is a problem and replacement are not getting any cheaper as no one is making more and stocks sell out over time.

[BlueBMW]

I've got a lot of very old floppy disks and am still amazed how few have failed.  I've got a hundred or so 5.25" disks for my old Atari 800 and I think maybe one of them has actually stopped reading (poor frogger )  Considering those disks are over 30 years old now I find it pretty impressive!

[jeffhlewis]

I figured 8 and 16 bit would have crashed by now as the flavor of the week in collecting evolves on to the 64-bit era, then on to the XB360/PS3 and beyond, but that sure hasn't happened. Shit's more expensive than it's ever been.

I think a more realistic scenario is that the market just corrects itself - it gets expensive to a point where merchants can't sell anything and it naturally corrects.

And yeah, us dying. That'll hurt the market.

[vexcollects]

More and more DLC rather than physical media should increase the collector desire for physical media, should it not? I would think that prices will level out for a while and then start to climb again, but only on the desired and rare titles/consoles. But, who knows... I'm still half thinking that the same thing that happened to the sports cards and toy collecting fads in the 90's will happen to our little hobby as well. Bell curve. Just like Nintendo Wii sales/interest.

[cr8zykuban0]

as long as more peiple are getting into the retro scene, it will increase for sure. sucks bad for me since im a neo geo collector and those games have gone up in price so much within the past 5 years that ive been collecting for the system.

still doesnt stop me from finding good deals though. it's getting hard but its possible to scoop good deals even on a neo

[EvilEvoIX]

as long as more peiple are getting into the retro scene, it will increase for sure. sucks bad for me since im a neo geo collector and those games have gone up in price so much within the past 5 years that ive been collecting for the system.

still doesnt stop me from finding good deals though. it's getting hard but its possible to scoop good deals even on a neo

Deals can always be had.  I got me a complete MVS ROTD's for $50 complete not too long ago.  As with every expensive hobby you have to realize that some people's eye's are far larger than their income and have panic sales when they realize that they cannot afford it or an emergency comes up.  I got me some nice stuff that way.  Also when I stated collecting for the Neo back in 1999 really shity games were cheap as hell, I got Soccer Brawl for like $15 a loose Football Frenzy for free and hell even a great game like FFS for like $10 because how common it was and people simply didn't value them.  I can't tell you how many copies of SS2 I had gone through and just dumped after buying bundles.  The best deal ever was back in 2008 there was some nut selling a bundle of 11 Boxed New Old Stock Launch games and I bought them all for like $250.  He had a LOT of them. Worked out to be $22 a game brand new.  I should have bought a bunch but you can still see them being sold on fleabay for $100 a game now, that's a 400% increase over 6 years.  This is obviously not sustainable and I see another crash where people simply say fuck it and move on.

I got all these guys for $250 shipped, could not be beat.  The Super Spy even came with the Dual 3.5MM Stereo Cable to link up two games for 2 player action.  I can't believe more people didn't jump on these before the resellers bought them all.

[Opethian]

Im an AEShole too, there is no ceiling to the madness.

[EvilEvoIX]

Ohhhh Slug 5!!!  It has my favorite music.  I got it on MVS.

[geise]

I haz da roms on my neo multi cart.

[BigusSchmuck]

Uh bit rot? About the only cds I have ever seen do this are the old cd-rs I burnt back in the early 2000s late 90s. As far as prices leveling out.. Well if virtual console and emulation hasn't done anything to prices nothing will.

[HailingTheThings]

There are a number of factors that worry me with Bit Rot being the number one.  After 20 yrs. most CDs and a high percentage of carts will start to become unplayable.  Many of my collecting friends have varying thoughts on how this will effect value.

Uh oh, should probably lower the price on this before it dies then, huh?

http://www.ebay.com/itm/BRAND-NEW-Dragon-Slayer-The-Legend-of-Heroes-TurboGrafx-CD-1992-Turbo-/141376759387?pt=Video_Games_Games&hash=item20eab6265b

[jordan_hillman]

It really does feel like groundhogs day with this topic, but here goes nothing. . .

I think a more realistic scenario is that the market just corrects itself - it gets expensive to a point where merchants can't sell anything and it naturally corrects.

I 100% agree. All markets and commodities, especially those driven by heavy speculation and high turnover (e.g. quickly flipping games for profit) are subject to market rises, drops, and corrections. Re-sellers can only raise prices so far before they price their buyers out. Other than a very very very small number of goods that are purchased for their "collectible" value, most items purchased for the purpose of collecting do not maintain an upward trajectory in their value.

I can't see people paying big bucks for ever on this stuff there has to be a crash except for the super rare stuff like the Gold NES Wold Champions Cart and so on.

People are definitely not going to be paying top dollar for classic games forever. Most of you current game collectors fall into three distinct categories:

(1) Guys and gals who are original owners of their systems, who never stopped picking up games for said systems when most stores and video game shops were selling off their old stock or selling used games for cheap. Most of these individuals are appalled by the current prices of their beloved games and would never pay $5000 for a copy of *insert your favorite rare title here*

(2) Younger Gen-X and older Millennials, who now have some level of disposable income, and they want their old childhood toys and systems back. These folks typically aren't interested in your *insert your favorite rare title here* and mainly just want their NES with Mario, Duckhunt, Zelda, or whatever games tug at their nostalgia boner. Some of these more deep pocketed individuals might get caught up in the collectard game, but most won't because, quite frankly, they probably don't give a rats dick about some weird looking game called Magical Chase thats going to set them back 5K.

(3) Last, and certainly not least, you have your weird smelly, sticky, pee-drinking collectards. These are the people (who am I kidding; they're all single young males with little to no dating prospects) who will spend any amount of money on any mint copy of *insert your favorite rare title here* in order to have it gloriously displayed on their wall and far away from that no-good system that might make their mint copy of "Magical Chase at Dinosaur Peak World Championships Saga" less valuable.

Long analysis short, groups 1 and 2 don't really give a shit because they still have their childhood games or they've purchased back the ones they had. Group 3 will continue to speculate and flip away until they price themselves out of their own market. And from there, they'll most likely sell of their collection to jump onto the next popular system to collect for.

And you're definitely right about Nintendo World Championships. That's one game I actually except to maintain an upward trajectory in value.

[imparanoic]

everdrive may free some of the remaining cartridges and cd games and in theory marginally lower the prices in the long term

[cr8zykuban0]

Im an AEShole too, there is no ceiling to the madness.

must be nice to have blazing star, pulstar, big tournament golf and last resort in aes version you aeshole!!! lol just messing but very awesome games man!

[cr8zykuban0]

as long as more peiple are getting into the retro scene, it will increase for sure. sucks bad for me since im a neo geo collector and those games have gone up in price so much within the past 5 years that ive been collecting for the system.

still doesnt stop me from finding good deals though. it's getting hard but its possible to scoop good deals even on a neo

Deals can always be had.  I got me a complete MVS ROTD's for $50 complete not too long ago.  As with every expensive hobby you have to realize that some people's eye's are far larger than their income and have panic sales when they realize that they cannot afford it or an emergency comes up.  I got me some nice stuff that way.  Also when I stated collecting for the Neo back in 1999 really shity games were cheap as hell, I got Soccer Brawl for like $15 a loose Football Frenzy for free and hell even a great game like FFS for like $10 because how common it was and people simply didn't value them.  I can't tell you how many copies of SS2 I had gone through and just dumped after buying bundles.  The best deal ever was back in 2008 there was some nut selling a bundle of 11 Boxed New Old Stock Launch games and I bought them all for like $250.  He had a LOT of them. Worked out to be $22 a game brand new.  I should have bought a bunch but you can still see them being sold on fleabay for $100 a game now, that's a 400% increase over 6 years.  This is obviously not sustainable and I see another crash where people simply say fuck it and move on.

I got all these guys for $250 shipped, could not be beat.  The Super Spy even came with the Dual 3.5MM Stereo Cable to link up two games for 2 player action.  I can't believe more people didn't jump on these before the resellers bought them all.

hey man, I actually purchased the same lot as well. 11 sealed neo geo games for 250 shipped from classic game source off ebay I believe. Did your ghost pilots come with that insert with the u.s. dog tag on it? Mine came with the euro insert. That's pretty weird but like you said man, still good deals to be found, just gotta be patient and consistant!

[wolfman]

Prices right now seem to be crazy high, and this is not just Turbografx stuff, but SNES, Sega Saturn, and other retro consoles.  Even the stuff that isn't 'rare' is double or even more than it was a couple years back.

Do you guys think the prices will eventually level out, once resellers move out and the gouging stops?  Or are we in for these prices for the foreseeable future?

Part of me thinks it's here to stay since these games are not getting any newer, and over the years people lose stuff or it breaks.

Anyways, what say you?

I don´t think prices will ever significantly drop in the future. TG and PCE are now vintage items, hence there is a price rise. Whether it is justified or not, prices will continue to rise and might rise into heights we probably now just have a mere imagination of.

And since we´re talking about vintage items, they will have a certain base price point that is dictated by their rarity, age and of course, availability to a certain market. If you live in Japan you will be happier than in the EU, since you pay less for items in general.

It is the same with classic cars. They never drop in price, they cost you money to drive them, they cost you money to stay in good shape (so does a game console, unless you can service it yourself), and they become more and more expensive due to less and less available original parts and of course generally models in running condition. There´s no way around it.

So I expect to rise certain games and items to become more and more expensive within the coming years. So I´d better start with the more rare items and purchase the less expensive ones later, since they are way more common and will stay common, hence become less expensive over a longer period of time.

Just my 2 cents. Anybody else perhaps with a different opinion?

[EvilEvoIX]

as long as more peiple are getting into the retro scene, it will increase for sure. sucks bad for me since im a neo geo collector and those games have gone up in price so much within the past 5 years that ive been collecting for the system.

still doesnt stop me from finding good deals though. it's getting hard but its possible to scoop good deals even on a neo

Deals can always be had.  I got me a complete MVS ROTD's for $50 complete not too long ago.  As with every expensive hobby you have to realize that some people's eye's are far larger than their income and have panic sales when they realize that they cannot afford it or an emergency comes up.  I got me some nice stuff that way.  Also when I stated collecting for the Neo back in 1999 really shity games were cheap as hell, I got Soccer Brawl for like $15 a loose Football Frenzy for free and hell even a great game like FFS for like $10 because how common it was and people simply didn't value them.  I can't tell you how many copies of SS2 I had gone through and just dumped after buying bundles.  The best deal ever was back in 2008 there was some nut selling a bundle of 11 Boxed New Old Stock Launch games and I bought them all for like $250.  He had a LOT of them. Worked out to be $22 a game brand new.  I should have bought a bunch but you can still see them being sold on fleabay for $100 a game now, that's a 400% increase over 6 years.  This is obviously not sustainable and I see another crash where people simply say fuck it and move on.

I got all these guys for $250 shipped, could not be beat.  The Super Spy even came with the Dual 3.5MM Stereo Cable to link up two games for 2 player action.  I can't believe more people didn't jump on these before the resellers bought them all.

hey man, I actually purchased the same lot as well. 11 sealed neo geo games for 250 shipped from classic game source off ebay I believe. Did your ghost pilots come with that insert with the u.s. dog tag on it? Mine came with the euro insert. That's pretty weird but like you said man, still good deals to be found, just gotta be patient and consistant!

I'll check when I get home, I never touched the books as they are minty fresh.  I only read my SS1-2-3 KOF books for moves and such.

[Azzurri]

Prices right now seem to be crazy high, and this is not just Turbografx stuff, but SNES, Sega Saturn, and other retro consoles.  Even the stuff that isn't 'rare' is double or even more than it was a couple years back.

Do you guys think the prices will eventually level out, once resellers move out and the gouging stops?  Or are we in for these prices for the foreseeable future?

Part of me thinks it's here to stay since these games are not getting any newer, and over the years people lose stuff or it breaks.

Anyways, what say you?

I don´t think prices will ever significantly drop in the future. TG and PCE are now vintage items, hence there is a price rise. Whether it is justified or not, prices will continue to rise and might rise into heights we probably now just have a mere imagination of.

And since we´re talking about vintage items, they will have a certain base price point that is dictated by their rarity, age and of course, availability to a certain market. If you live in Japan you will be happier than in the EU, since you pay less for items in general.

It is the same with classic cars. They never drop in price, they cost you money to drive them, they cost you money to stay in good shape (so does a game console, unless you can service it yourself), and they become more and more expensive due to less and less available original parts and of course generally models in running condition. There´s no way around it.

So I expect to rise certain games and items to become more and more expensive within the coming years. So I´d better start with the more rare items and purchase the less expensive ones later, since they are way more common and will stay common, hence become less expensive over a longer period of time.

Just my 2 cents. Anybody else perhaps with a different opinion?

I agree with you, just like you said the price for vintage cars just keep going up as the years pass by, and since none of these games are in production and haven't been for over 20 years now, I don't see prices really dropping, especially for rare titles.  The commons ones probably won't move all that much.

[NecroPhile]

It is the same with classic cars. They never drop in price...

That's true for stuff like a 250 GTO, but it's false for classic cars in general.  Values are cyclical for most, rising and falling as their popularity waxes and wanes.

[BigusSchmuck]

It is the same with classic cars. They never drop in price...

That's true for stuff like a 250 GTO, but it's false for classic cars in general.  Values are cyclical for most, rising and falling as their popularity waxes and wanes.

Right, try to find someone who wants a gremlin from back in the 70s and see what happens. Yet if someone asked for a Dorlean than everyone and their grandmother who watched Back to the Future will want it.

[synbiosfan]

Right, try to find someone who wants a gremlin from back in the 70s and see what happens.

I'd love a Gremlin X, the little fuckers are fast as hell, real sleepers.

[tbone3969]

There are a number of factors that worry me with Bit Rot being the number one.  After 20 yrs. most CDs and a high percentage of carts will start to become unplayable.  Many of my collecting friends have varying thoughts on how this will effect value.

Uh oh, should probably lower the price on this before it dies then, huh?

http://www.ebay.com/itm/BRAND-NEW-Dragon-Slayer-The-Legend-of-Heroes-TurboGrafx-CD-1992-Turbo-/141376759387?pt=Video_Games_Games&hash=item20eab6265b

No that game is sealed.  Sealed games will always hold their value because they are only meant to be collected and not played as people will not open them.

[NecroPhile]

Sealed games will always hold their value because they are only meant to be collected and not played as people will not open them.

Wanna bet?  I like popping game cherries.

[tbone3969]

Sealed games will always hold their value because they are only meant to be collected and not played as people will not open them.

Wanna bet?  I like popping game cherries.

Correction "most people will not open them"...  there are always a few exceptions.  Do you think anyone has ever opened a high graded NIB game?

[NecroPhile]

Do you think anyone has ever opened a high graded NIB game?

If you mean a game that some retard wasted money sending off to a bullshit grading "authority" like VGA, it's not likely as those fools have a vested interest in not opening the game; if you mean a game that would be graded as sealed, minty fresh by any moderately intelligent person, then of course.  My most recent one was Manhattan Requiem just a few weeks ago, and I sure as shit ain't the only one here that frees games from their plastic prisons.

[ultrageranium]

I don't think it's possible to accurately predict how the retro bubble will develop in the coming years as its market can be highly influenced by the silent ones who owns/license the IP for these objects.

For instance an analogy can be drawn here with analogue synthesizers, which were abandoned by their manufacturers yet eventually, thanks to a growing popularity in the last two decades, brought back to life first via software, then into simplified SoC, and very recently so-called 1:1 hardware replicas. A good example of this is the original Korg MS-20, made available again as a limited edition kit.

While the purist will find some differences between the original MS-20 and the very recent 1:1 replica kit, it was good enough to slow down, possibly stale and invert the price trend of the increasingly hard to find and maintain original hardware, and funnily enough, significantly increase the availability of the old synth, suddenly liberated by musicians who would see the added value of selling the old gear for a 99% as good, yet brand new, model.

Given circumstances in which retro gaming keeps on increasing in popularity, I do not see far fetch the idea of a manufacturer, the original IP owner, or a licensed one, starting to make 1:1 replica of old console hardware and games.

[HailingTheThings]

No that game is sealed.  Sealed games will always hold their value because they are only meant to be collected and not played as people will not open them.

. . .

Wanna bet?  I like popping game cherries.

Yesh!

[mitsuman]

...and I sure as shit ain't the only one here that frees games from their plastic prisons.

[johnnymad]

Sealed games will always hold their value because they are only meant to be collected and not played as people will not open them.

Wanna bet?  I like popping game cherries.

Found a sealed PSP game at a thrift store today. Imma gonna open it.

[BigusSchmuck]

Do you think anyone has ever opened a high graded NIB game?

If you mean a game that some retard wasted money sending off to a bullshit grading "authority" like VGA, it's not likely as those fools have a vested interest in not opening the game; if you mean a game that would be graded as sealed, minty fresh by any moderately intelligent person, then of course.  My most recent one was Manhattan Requiem just a few weeks ago, and I sure as shit ain't the only one here that frees games from their plastic prisons.

I opened my sealed Don Quixote Laseractive game a few weeks ago so I have no desire to keep sealed games. Thats just retarded stupid how much something is worth just because its unopened.

[esadajr]

This is a great time to get into those missed gems from the 6th gen. (I'm looking at you PS2)

For the older stuff, just go with emulators, CDRs or flashcarts if you can't get it at a decent price.